Prediction of Tornado Occurance in the Twin Cities

INFO 523 - Summer 2025 - Final Project

The Crengineers - Tyler Hart

Introduction

Why Tornadoes in the Twin Cities

• Unfortunately I have had friends and family affected by devastationg tornados

• My family lives in the Twin Cities which while towards the top of tornado alley is still in its “alley” of influence

• Daily weather is a part of everyones lives. Living in Tucson now, I check it at least 10 times a day in the summer.

DataSets

More Detailed dataset information can be found at Data Dictionary

• Area of Interest
• Data Description
• Data Head

TODO: PHOTO AND RATIONALE HERE

Image credit: Danielle Navarro, Percolate.

• Two Datasets:

  • Minnesota NOAA Tornado Archive:

    • Contains data on every reported tornado event as far back as 1952.

    • Includes tornado statistics such as location, size, damage

  • Minneapolis Saint-Paul (MSP/Twin Cities) daily weather data:

    • Gathered daily weather data from MSP International Airport.

    • Includes all daily data as far back as 2000 including wind direction, temperature, surface pressure, etc.

    • Gathered from open meteo API. Saved in repo for convience.

Merged Variables I care about with Feature Engineering Features

Exploratory Data Analysis

• Tornado Occurred Relations
• Date Relations
• Time of Year Relations

Model Creation and Results:

• Logistic Regression
• Naive Bayes
• Support Vector Machines
• Random Forest

App Display:

Questions: